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C20 · proof of concept

One-way doors.

When budgets tighten, certain activities are cut first. When budgets recover, not all of them come back. Most operating decisions made under compression assume that the cuts are reversible. They aren't, and the asymmetry is usually invisible at the moment of cutting.

Interactive: drag the budget slider down to see activities being cut at thresholds. Drag back up to see which activities return automatically and which do not.
Operating budget 100%
30% 100%

Drag down to see what gets cut. Drag back up to see what does — and doesn't — return.

  • Listening · sector research Active

    Primary research with stakeholders, environment scanning, formative work that no other team produces.

  • Evaluation · measurement Active

    Outcome measurement, programme evaluation, longitudinal tracking of what is actually working.

  • Strategic planning · R&D Active

    Forward-looking work — strategy refresh, programme design, the next-iteration thinking that requires unencumbered time.

  • Programme B · secondary Active

    A second programme line, often newer or smaller. First to be paused when revenue contracts.

  • Programme A · flagship Active

    The core programme. Held longer than anything else, including the work that produced it.

  • Fundraising operations Active

    The function that is producing the revenue that is shrinking. Cut last, by definition.

All six activities are active. Budget at 100%.

Notice the order. The first activities cut are not the most expensive ones — they are the most upstream. Listening, evaluation, strategic planning all go before any programme is touched. From inside the moment of cutting, this is rational; each of those is hardest to defend in a tight quarterly budget meeting because none of them shows up in next month's outputs.

Now drag the slider back up. The programmes return. The fundraising operations return. The upstream work — listening, evaluation, planning — does not. The capability has been lost, the staff who held it have moved on, and the institutional memory of how to do it has gone with them. A two-year compression doesn't pause this work. It resets it. And the second time an organization tries to rebuild a research function or a measurement function from scratch, it usually doesn't — because the same compression logic that cut it the first time still applies.

This is a structural reason the listening leg of a three-part method is rare not just in consulting but in the organizations consulting serves. The work that produces the conditions for design and resourcing is also the work that doesn't survive a budget cycle.

Source. The asymmetry between cut and recovery is the central observation in David W. de Long, Lost Knowledge: Confronting the Threat of an Aging Workforce (Oxford University Press, 2004), generalised here from workforce-departure cases to budget-compression cases. The cut order — upstream first, revenue-generating last — is consistent with nonprofit financial-restructuring patterns documented by The Bridgespan Group and Independent Sector. Activity-level numeric thresholds in this POC are illustrative; processing CRA T3010 aggregates for tier-specific spending ratios is a follow-up step the build plan defers.